Thursday, July 23, 2015

You'd think they'd grow weary

Fans of the Toronto Dolphins celebrate.
of being exactly wrong:
Those of my readers who want to see a fine example of this sort of blindness to the obvious need only check the latest headlines. Within the next decade or so, for example, the entire southern half of Florida will become unfit for human habitation due to rising sea levels, driven by our dumping of greenhouse gases into an already overloaded atmosphere. 
Now, as much as I love reading the thoughts of America's favorite Archdruid, I grow weary of short-term climate progress prophecies.  Not because they're scary and all that, but because they're always wrong.  Not "sometimes wrong".  Not "close-but-no-cigar". They are always wrong.

All one needs to do to test this hypothesis is to read the newspaper from 5 or 10 or 20 years ago*.  Snow was going to become as legendary in Britain as St. George's dragon. Ice was going to disappear from the arctic and the antarctic.  We were going to have hurricanes every 15 minutes or so along America's flooded East Coast. The temp was going to rise and rise and rise** until Denver was forced to host the Super Bowl every year because the rest of North America was under water.

None of them happened.   Yet Albert Gore's traveling circus and subsidy vacuum rolls on, sucking up tax monies like a feminist collecting regrets. And if people still live in south Florida in 2020, enjoying weekends beside oceans that stubbornly refuse to rise, this prophecy will join the hundreds, thousands, of scary amusing prognostications proffered by those who mistake hysteria for reason and politics for science. 

But you don't have to take my word for it.  All you have to do is live ten years.  Because no matter what anyone says, no matter what anyone does, we're not going to collectively do anything about this alleged problem.  Prince Charles and the Pope and Bill Nye the Science Guy are still going to fly all over the world to warn of the dangers of flight. China is still going to pump more shit into the atmosphere than the rest of the world could conceivably cut, even if we all moved into caves and held our breath 12 hours a day. And the snow is still going to fall and maybe we'll get a hurricane eventually. When it does come, it'll be blamed on global warming.

But the main thing that's going to happen is, when the prophecies don't come true, they'll be renewed faster than Tom Brady's contract, without even a little cotton tag bragging that they are made of 100% recycled materials***. And no one who is wed to this idea that a change in atmospheric CO2 from .03% to .04% must kill us all will pay the slightest attention to the fact that a hypothesis clung to in the face of contrary evidence is not science, no matter how many scientists join in the clinging.  It's still just religion.

* You will note that the proponents of anthropogenic global warming are certain about the future, which cannot be tested scientifically, and mostly ignore the past or present, which has been.
** What has happened, ironically, is that the temperatures of the past fell instead. Now that's some powerful science.
*** if hysteria can be considered a material.

10 comments:

  1. what's really so disappointing is that he starts off just fine, talking about Toynbee's history and the inability of populations to grapple with the real world ...

    and then he immediately demonstrates his inability to grapple with the real world.

    i mean, i've lived in Fla. there are NO neighborhoods at risk of being under water due to an onshore wind at high tide ( barring hurricanes, of course ). there are houses and cities all up and down both coasts < 10' ASL. if we start to get significant sea level rise, all of coastal Fla will damn well know about it.

    the article he cites to 'back up' his assertion is complaining about ... building in a flood zone.

    well, duh.

    building in a flood zone is a completely different problem than rising sea levels. and you can do that anywhere. the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers being an excellent example.

    an example:
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/come-hell-or-high-water-the-disaster-scenario-that-is-south-florida/article25552300/
    "Mr. Gottlieb, the environmental activist, drives to a seawall near Ft. Lauderdale. It is new, rising about three feet in the clearing between a sandy ocean beach and the road. It was built with flooding in mind, after rain from Hurricane Sandy inundated the roads here."


    they built the seawall NOT because of storm surge but BECAUSE OF RAIN FALL.

    how fucking retarded to you have to be to mistake wave problems for rainfall problems?

    of course, the real answer isn't that they're retarded. they know perfectly well that they are misrepresenting what it was built for.


    and remember, enviros have been failing at weather prediction ever since the 1970s and Paul Ehrlich. Ehrlich claimed that we were irreparably damaging the environment simply due to overpopulation.

    the green weenies haven't gotten any more accurate since then.

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  2. Yeah. Along Bob's notions, I remember, in Iowa City they decided to allow a developer to begin building on, really, a sandbar. Thankfully the first builds were flooded before they finished, and signed suckers buyers in. Now, though that developer went bust, he sold to another, who set out to repair and sell those houses again. Just so happens another flood came through. Several hundred and five hundred, and then I think a thousand (hahahahahha, *breath* ahahahahahahhaha, *breath* hahahahahahahahha) year flood eventually put the nubs to the development.

    So, just by chance, no one ended up being stung (who shouldn't have been stung). I think, also, just by accident, not even taxpayers ended up losing, somehow. I had a wood for almost a month when I saw how it all worked out. Wait! Just... got a wood thinking back on it. *boing* :p

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  3. Because no matter what anyone says, no matter what anyone does, we're not going to collectively do anything about this alleged problem.

    This really is the key. Even if the climate alarmists are right, no one is willing to undergo the massive change to living standards necessary to reduce emissions to the level that they want. On top of that, some of them are saying "it may already be too late." Then why bother?

    Seriously, some of the changes that they're pushing are sensible for real reasons: pollution is a thing. Scarcity is a thing. But they'd rather go the fear-mongering route. Oh well. It's 71 degrees here. Think I'll crank up the A/C

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  4. no one is willing to undergo the massive change to living standards necessary to reduce emissions to the level that they want

    This is why they always promise to reduce emissions far enough in the future that the current batch of politicians is out of office. "Oh, we're going to reduce CO2 emissions 80% by 2050." No you're not, you'll be long dead. Yet somehow the politicians of the future will find the backbone to do what they won't today.

    Ironically, if we do collectively reduce emissions by the promised numbers, you can bet the existing crop of politicians will be fighting the trend all the way. They'll just call it "creating jobs."

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  5. CJJuly 23, 2015 at 6:25 AM
    This really is the key. Even if the climate alarmists are right, no one is willing to undergo the massive change to living standards necessary to reduce emissions to the level that they want.



    no, IT DOESN'T MATTER if the entire West becomes willing to reduce their standard of living tomorrow.

    China, India, Africa, Indonesia, etc ARE NOT so willing.

    any emissions reductions from the West are simply going to be offset into 2nd and 3rd world economies.


    another data point for you:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_River_%28Florida%29

    i grew up in Melbourne, Fla. there are docks in the water in the Indian River which still serve their purpose, effortlessly, 40 years later.

    there are numerous CAUSEWAYS ( that is, roads built on dikes just above the high tide water level ) crossing the Indian River which are, guess what, NOT underwater. nor are they in any danger of getting flooded out.

    these idiots have been screeching about catastrophic sea level rise Real Soon Now since 1980. actual rise? ~2".

    http://www.businessinsider.com/rising-sea-level-maps-from-1980-2014-5?op=1

    and even with all this, they STILL admit that sea levels have been rising since the mid 1800s.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Trends_in_global_average_absolute_sea_level%2C_1880-2013.png

    uh, wat? anthropogenic global warming started in 1870, 60 years before any significant petroleum use?

    STFU.

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  6. Back in the 1500's, 1600's, 1700's, 1800's and right up to the point in the 1900's that someone actually wanted to live "civilized" (as though The Civilized Tribes weren't) in Sunny South Florida, ALL of Florida was considered uninhabitable. The only time in his life General Winfield Scott was both unpopular and hated something it was Florida--he hated it and those who dared to live there hated him. It was a swampy jungle. Only by extreme perseverance have retired white men managed to beat back the center of Florida into submission so that "civilization...."

    I find it intriguing that people are still tooting this horn. I thought it went flat a long time ago. I was on a message board, oh, five or so years ago where there was a rocket scientist who preached this stuff to the Baptists who largely didn't believe him--though there were a few. I kept asking him what the optimum temperature of the earth was supposed to be--seeing as how Alaska and Antarctica used to be topical. He never answered me. Just kept with his "L" of CO^2 and how we were all going to regret it. Never mind that a highway 6 months abandoned grows grass as will anything else not tended weekly. I like warmth, personally. Not crazy about humidity, however.

    In Bible Study on Wednesday nights, we've been studying Revelation. A few weeks ago, we discovered that God's going to fix global warming--massive earthquake, a mountain burning from the sky, extreme darkness. Yep, He's going to fix it--just as soon as all of humanity finishes turning on Him. Won't be long in the "civilized" sectors. The 3rd world may keep us going for a while.

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  7. a hypothesis clung to in the face of contrary evidence is not science, no matter how many scientists join in the clinging. It's still just religion.

    What it is is an economic/business model of control and monopoly.
    Agenda 21 Sustainable Development
    My favorite Lesbian Democrat Rosa - and others - have had the Club of Rome and RioEarthSummit and the lockdown figured out for a long time now.
    re: Behind the Green Mask
    The way in which this has been memed into society is as important to understand as is what they are trying to meme.

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  8. EPA Concludes Climate Change Is Biggest Issue of Our Time in Recent Report

    A recent report released by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said that climate change could kill 12,000 people annually in the U.S. if actions are not taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.


    Well, that's 210,000 less than hospitals, so ...

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  9. it's also worth pointing out that there is NO ACCIDENT that the sea levels have been rising since the late 1800s.

    you notice how all the sea level projections are assumed to flat line prior to 1900? you know what happened in the mid-1800s? the Little Ice Age *ended*.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
    "It has been conventionally defined as a period extending from the sixteenth to the nineteenth centuries,[3][4][5] or alternatively, from about 1300[6] to about 1850"


    well, no shit, the planet warming up from hundreds of years of temps BELOW THE MEAN then swings to temps above the mean.

    i'm shocked, SHOCKED i tell you.

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