Thursday, December 31, 2015

So maybe next year sux and that's fine

The man formerly known as Bruce
Woman of  the Current.Year()
Or maybe it doesn't, and that's ok, too.

I must admit, despite the observable fact that the world political economy is turning into a level 5 shiteburger, life's been good to me so far.  And at the risk of turning this blog into a poor man's Popoli, I'll just say that part of the reason for my neglected posting has been that I've become the primary writer for Chapter Four Games' upcoming RPG Sodality*.   Plus Swords of Darkness comes out tomorrow, and my story for that took some time.  Plus I'm almost to the point on die sales where Paypal is going to tell Uncle Sam on me.  I'm not saying this to brag, but to illustrate that, although I expect the financial SHTF any quarter now, I'm not sitting in the basement polishing my 1911s.** Nor should you be. You get ready, but you live your life as well. Make hay while the sun shines, or so the old farts say.

But it's a happy new year and all that, and I'm well into my allotment of Bacardi and Coke, and everyone else is asleep, and the heavens declare the glory of God into my dark and quiet sunroom, and so how about we lay out what I expect will happen this currentYear(+1), so we can all see what fools these mortals be? Or at least this mortal.

1. Martial law, Obama cancelling the elections, They're Coming For Your Guns, fuggetabout it. The Elites do not tell you of their plans through TV programming. There's no Planet X or secret comet coming our way. If we get hit (we won't) it will be by something coming out of the sun that we do not see until hours before impact. But sunspots are disappearing, the Earth's magnetic shield is weakening, and Jupiter's centuries-old storm is dying. Something is happening, and it's bigger than 50ppm of CO2.

2. Europe is about to come apart. Really apart.  The EU is a manufactured product of the elites, losing a battle against mathematics and the diminishing returns of technology.  Multiculturalism as a strategy was designed to avoid war in Europe by eliminating national and cultural distinctions that allegedly cause it.  It won't work.  Once the nationalist stormtroopers drive out the sand people they will go back to hating one another, and that with a fury. Merkel will never wear a burka. But like her model Il Duce, she might wear a noose before it's all over.

3. I don't know if The Donald will win the presidency. If he holds tough until the end, I think he can. He has made this election about him in a way no non-incumbent ever has, and it's a fight he has every necessary tool to win.  I just don't know if he really wants it***. If he gets it, I suspect he'll be less successful than anyone can imagine, though through no fault of his own. America is simply ungovernable at this point, and a nice Depression will make that fact obvious even to the Democrats.

4. 2016 will be a losing year in every market that matters - stocks, bonds, gold, and non-USD currencies.  Looking at the absolute slaughter taking place in the developing world debt-wise, there is no way the BRICS or their third-world barnacles pose any threat to the dollar. The USD may end next year another 20% higher; it will certainly not end 20% lower. People who shorted the dollar to get a higher yield elsewhere are hosed. That trade will not unwind quickly. But it's going to unwind mercilessly.

5. We may see 2008 all over again, with broken markets and panicked rulers and rules - and dollars - made on the fly. In fact, I expect that we will. But since the Fed is already levered up to the stars, this may be the year that the manageable crisis becomes unmanageable, the year that the elites lose control. The good news is that their ultimate response will be to give you free money. Spend it wisely.

But if not, that's fine.  If nothing bad ever happens in America again, I'll still grow the best horseradish in the Midwest and sell rebuilt dies on ebay for almost nothing and give of my profits to ship bibles to India.

Because no matter what happens around you, if you're not doing what you like to do and what you ought to be doing, you're doing life wrong.

Happy New Year.

* you haven't heard of them or it, but if I have anything to do with it you will.
** Well, not every day.
*** It's been my belief for a long time that Trump is the world's richest troll. I am not certain that he has wholly come to grips with the electoral tsunami he has created.